762 trading days of historical baselines for DAX (FDAX) — harmonic rotations, opening location, overnight levels, initial balance, close behavior, volume and range distributions, to align GEX key levels with historical probabilities.
Data note：Below is the historical baseline for DAX, sample window 2023-07-02 to 2026-07-03, 762 trading days. All times are CET. These are probability references, not trading advice — past performance does not indicate future results.
This chapter is the data foundation for the futures workflow and playbook: use range modes for "typical magnitude", use touch probabilities to prioritize key levels, use IB / overnight / gap probabilities for the daily script, then overlay real-time GEX structure.
Contract Specifications
Sample days
762
RTH session
09:00 – 17:30 (CET)
IB session
09:00 – 10:00 (CET)
Includes holidays
No
Min. price fluctuation
1.00
Tick value
€25.00
Initial margin
€4,491
Maintenance margin
€4,491
Exchange
EUREX
Settlement
Cash-settled
Expirations
Standard quarters
20-Session Harmonic Rotations
Single-direction swing distribution over 1-minute rotations across 20 trading days. The mode is the "typical swing"; beyond the 1st std-dev upper bound is an outsized swing; beyond the 90th percentile is impulsive.
Direction
Samples
Mode (typical swing)
1st std-dev range
Outsized (>1σ)
Impulsive (>90%)
Up rotations
1,693
17 pts
6 – 29
≥ 29
≥ 45
Down rotations
1,684
16 pts
6 – 28
≥ 28
≥ 45
Up rotations · n=1,693Down rotations · n=1,684
Auction
Metric
Probability
Neutral Day (breaks both IBH and IBL)
37.80%
Neutral Day follows a Neutral Day
39.24%
Neutral Extreme Day
50.00%
Opening Location
Distribution of the open vs the previous RTH session key levels:
Metric
Probability
Gap up · above pClose
54.72%
Gap up · above pHOD (session gap)
24.02%
Gap down · below pClose
44.23%
Gap down · below pLOD (session gap)
15.62%
Open inside previous IB
23.10%
Open inside previous value area
32.15%
Open vs Previous Range
By opening location, the historical probability of touching each key level at least once during RTH.
Case A · Open above previous range（183）
Target
Touch probability
1/2 gap (halfway fill)
78.69%
pHOD
66.12%
pVAH
50.82%
pClose (gap fill)
46.45%
pIBH
37.70%
pVPOC
34.43%
pMID
28.42%
pOpen
23.50%
pVAL
16.94%
pIBL
13.11%
pLOD
10.38%
Case B · Open inside previous range（460）
Target
Touch probability
pClose (gap fill)
71.52%
pMID
67.83%
pVPOC
66.52%
pVAH
61.30%
pVAL
58.26%
pIBH
55.00%
pOpen
50.00%
pHOD
49.35%
pIBL
48.26%
pLOD
41.96%
Case C · Open below previous range（119）
Target
Touch probability
1/2 gap (halfway fill)
76.47%
pLOD
54.62%
pVAL
36.13%
pIBL
31.09%
pClose (gap fill)
28.57%
pVPOC
19.33%
pMID
17.65%
pOpen
14.29%
pVAH
9.24%
pIBH
6.72%
pHOD
5.04%
Overnight Session Levels
Probability of touching an overnight session key level at least once during RTH:
Overnight level
Touch probability
Touch ONH or ONL (either)
95.28%
Touch ONH
64.30%
Touch ONL
55.38%
Touch both ONH and ONL
24.41%
Touch ONMID
71.92%
Touch ONVAH
68.77%
Touch ONVAL
65.49%
Touch ONVPOC
65.22%
Initial Balance (IB)
The first-hour range and its subsequent breakout behavior:
Metric
Probability
Break at least one side
98.69%
Break both sides (neutral day)
37.80%
Break only IBH
33.46%
Break only IBL
27.43%
IB holds inside previous IB
4.07%
Break neither side
1.31%
Close After Single IB Break
After breaking only one side of the IB, the probability of the close landing above/below a level:
Case
Probability
Close above IBH (after single break)
75.29%
Close above MID (after single break)
83.53%
Close below IBL (after single break)
68.90%
Close below MID (after single break)
73.21%
Close
Metric
Probability
Close inside previous range
39.63%
Neutral day closes inside IB
35.76%
Close inside previous IB
16.01%
Bearish engulfing
0.92%
Bullish engulfing
0.39%
Volume
Session volume distribution with mode and 1st std-dev range.
Daily session volume (RTH)（n=762）
Mode
20,000
1st std-dev range
15,000 – 35,000
Daily session volume (RTH)
Overnight session volume (ETH)（n=762）
Mode
9,000
1st std-dev range
4,000 – 12,000
Overnight session volume (ETH)
Range
Range distribution for daily / overnight / initial-balance sessions.
Daily session range (RTH)（n=762）
Mode
175 pts
1st std-dev range
75 – 255 pts
Daily session range (RTH)
Overnight session range (ETH)（n=762）
Mode
85 pts
1st std-dev range
50 – 180 pts
Overnight session range (ETH)
Initial balance range（n=762）
Session
09:00 – 10:00 (CET)
Mode
75 pts
1st std-dev range
40 – 117.5 pts
Initial balance range
Using with HermesGEX
Overlay these baselines on live GEX structure: use range modes to scale GEX targets, use touch probabilities to rank prior/overnight levels against walls, use IB / neutral-day odds to pick the play (single break → trend, double break → range).
Risk disclaimer：All data on this page is historical statistics over a fixed sample window and does not constitute trading advice. Futures and options on futures carry substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors; past performance does not indicate future results.
Hermēs Documentation