762 trading days of historical baselines for Euro-Bund (FGBL) — harmonic rotations, opening location, overnight levels, initial balance, close behavior, volume and range distributions, to align GEX key levels with historical probabilities.
Data note：Below is the historical baseline for Euro-Bund, sample window 2023-07-02 to 2026-07-03, 762 trading days. All times are CET. These are probability references, not trading advice — past performance does not indicate future results.
This chapter is the data foundation for the futures workflow and playbook: use range modes for "typical magnitude", use touch probabilities to prioritize key levels, use IB / overnight / gap probabilities for the daily script, then overlay real-time GEX structure.
Contract Specifications
Sample days
762
RTH session
08:00 – 17:15 (CET)
IB session
08:00 – 10:00 (CET)
Includes holidays
No
Min. price fluctuation
0.01
Tick value
€10.00
Initial margin
€2,465
Maintenance margin
€2,465
Exchange
EUREX
Settlement
Deliverable
Expirations
Standard quarters
20-Session Harmonic Rotations
Single-direction swing distribution over 1-minute rotations across 20 trading days. The mode is the "typical swing"; beyond the 1st std-dev upper bound is an outsized swing; beyond the 90th percentile is impulsive.
Direction
Samples
Mode (typical swing)
1st std-dev range
Outsized (>1σ)
Impulsive (>90%)
Up rotations
1,156
0.03 pts
0.01 – 0.05
≥ 0.05
≥ 0.07
Down rotations
1,153
0.03 pts
0.01 – 0.05
≥ 0.05
≥ 0.07
Up rotations · n=1,156Down rotations · n=1,153
Auction
Metric
Probability
Neutral Day (breaks both IBH and IBL)
33.20%
Neutral Day follows a Neutral Day
35.57%
Neutral Extreme Day
52.96%
Opening Location
Distribution of the open vs the previous RTH session key levels:
Metric
Probability
Gap up · above pClose
45.80%
Gap up · above pHOD (session gap)
14.96%
Gap down · below pClose
52.23%
Gap down · below pLOD (session gap)
16.93%
Open inside previous IB
28.87%
Open inside previous value area
35.04%
Open vs Previous Range
By opening location, the historical probability of touching each key level at least once during RTH.
Case A · Open above previous range（114）
Target
Touch probability
1/2 gap (halfway fill)
88.60%
pHOD
77.19%
pVAH
54.39%
pClose (gap fill)
50.00%
pIBH
43.86%
pVPOC
31.58%
pMID
30.70%
pOpen
28.95%
pIBL
17.54%
pVAL
16.67%
pLOD
9.65%
Case B · Open inside previous range（519）
Target
Touch probability
pClose (gap fill)
72.45%
pMID
71.29%
pVPOC
67.24%
pVAH
63.20%
pVAL
59.15%
pIBH
56.26%
pOpen
55.49%
pIBL
52.41%
pHOD
48.17%
pLOD
46.44%
Case C · Open below previous range（129）
Target
Touch probability
1/2 gap (halfway fill)
84.50%
pLOD
68.22%
pVAL
53.49%
pClose (gap fill)
49.61%
pIBL
38.76%
pVPOC
35.66%
pMID
25.58%
pOpen
22.48%
pVAH
17.83%
pIBH
13.18%
pHOD
11.63%
Overnight Session Levels
Probability of touching an overnight session key level at least once during RTH:
Overnight level
Touch probability
Touch ONH or ONL (either)
98.56%
Touch ONH
67.72%
Touch ONL
67.85%
Touch both ONH and ONL
37.01%
Touch ONMID
79.27%
Touch ONVAH
68.11%
Touch ONVAL
68.37%
Touch ONVPOC
68.77%
Initial Balance (IB)
The first-hour range and its subsequent breakout behavior:
Metric
Probability
Break at least one side
98.16%
Break both sides (neutral day)
33.20%
Break only IBH
31.36%
Break only IBL
33.60%
IB holds inside previous IB
5.64%
Break neither side
1.84%
Close After Single IB Break
After breaking only one side of the IB, the probability of the close landing above/below a level:
Case
Probability
Close above IBH (after single break)
72.38%
Close above MID (after single break)
79.50%
Close below IBL (after single break)
70.70%
Close below MID (after single break)
83.20%
Close
Metric
Probability
Close inside previous range
45.28%
Neutral day closes inside IB
38.34%
Close inside previous IB
21.78%
Bearish engulfing
0.66%
Bullish engulfing
1.18%
Volume
Session volume distribution with mode and 1st std-dev range.
Daily session volume (RTH)（n=762）
Mode
680,000
1st std-dev range
560,000 – 1,000,000
Daily session volume (RTH)
Overnight session volume (ETH)（n=762）
Mode
82,500
1st std-dev range
52,500 – 147,500
Overnight session volume (ETH)
Range
Range distribution for daily / overnight / initial-balance sessions.
Daily session range (RTH)（n=762）
Mode
0.6 pts
1st std-dev range
0.26 – 0.76 pts
Daily session range (RTH)
Overnight session range (ETH)（n=762）
Mode
0.24 pts
1st std-dev range
0.12 – 0.4 pts
Overnight session range (ETH)
Initial balance range（n=762）
Session
08:00 – 10:00 (CET)
Mode
0.24 pts
1st std-dev range
0.12 – 0.38 pts
Initial balance range
Using with HermesGEX
Overlay these baselines on live GEX structure: use range modes to scale GEX targets, use touch probabilities to rank prior/overnight levels against walls, use IB / neutral-day odds to pick the play (single break → trend, double break → range).
Risk disclaimer：All data on this page is historical statistics over a fixed sample window and does not constitute trading advice. Futures and options on futures carry substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors; past performance does not indicate future results.
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