772 trading days of historical baselines for Gold (GC) — harmonic rotations, opening location, overnight levels, initial balance, close behavior, volume and range distributions, to align GEX key levels with historical probabilities.
Data note：Below is the historical baseline for Gold, sample window 2023-07-02 to 2026-07-03, 772 trading days. All times are CT. These are probability references, not trading advice — past performance does not indicate future results.
This chapter is the data foundation for the futures workflow and playbook: use range modes for "typical magnitude", use touch probabilities to prioritize key levels, use IB / overnight / gap probabilities for the daily script, then overlay real-time GEX structure.
Contract Specifications
Sample days
772
RTH session
07:20 – 12:30 (CT)
IB session
07:20 – 08:20 (CT)
Includes holidays
No
Min. price fluctuation
0.10
Tick value
$10.00
Initial margin
$22,433
Maintenance margin
$20,394
Exchange
COMEX
Settlement
Deliverable
Expirations
Varied
20-Session Harmonic Rotations
Single-direction swing distribution over 1-minute rotations across 20 trading days. The mode is the "typical swing"; beyond the 1st std-dev upper bound is an outsized swing; beyond the 90th percentile is impulsive.
Direction
Samples
Mode (typical swing)
1st std-dev range
Outsized (>1σ)
Impulsive (>90%)
Up rotations
1,098
3.6 pts
1.3 – 7.3
≥ 7.3
≥ 12.4
Down rotations
1,089
4.5 pts
1.6 – 7.8
≥ 7.8
≥ 12.7
Up rotations · n=1,098Down rotations · n=1,089
Auction
Metric
Probability
Neutral Day (breaks both IBH and IBL)
31.74%
Neutral Day follows a Neutral Day
37.96%
Neutral Extreme Day
40.41%
Opening Location
Distribution of the open vs the previous RTH session key levels:
Metric
Probability
Gap up · above pClose
60.10%
Gap up · above pHOD (session gap)
28.76%
Gap down · below pClose
39.64%
Gap down · below pLOD (session gap)
16.97%
Open inside previous IB
26.04%
Open inside previous value area
29.92%
Open vs Previous Range
By opening location, the historical probability of touching each key level at least once during RTH.
Case A · Open above previous range（222）
Target
Touch probability
1/2 gap (halfway fill)
68.02%
pHOD
47.30%
pVAH
33.33%
pClose (gap fill)
27.48%
pIBH
26.13%
pVPOC
22.97%
pOpen
16.22%
pMID
15.77%
pVAL
10.81%
pIBL
9.46%
pLOD
5.86%
Case B · Open inside previous range（419）
Target
Touch probability
pMID
69.93%
pVPOC
66.59%
pClose (gap fill)
64.20%
pVAL
60.38%
pIBH
57.76%
pVAH
57.76%
pOpen
57.52%
pIBL
56.56%
pLOD
44.87%
pHOD
44.39%
Case C · Open below previous range（131）
Target
Touch probability
1/2 gap (halfway fill)
62.60%
pLOD
45.04%
pVAL
32.82%
pIBL
28.24%
pClose (gap fill)
17.56%
pVPOC
17.56%
pMID
16.03%
pOpen
15.27%
pVAH
9.92%
pIBH
8.40%
pHOD
4.58%
Overnight Session Levels
Probability of touching an overnight session key level at least once during RTH:
Overnight level
Touch probability
Touch ONH or ONL (either)
79.15%
Touch ONH
48.45%
Touch ONL
40.28%
Touch both ONH and ONL
9.59%
Touch ONMID
63.86%
Touch ONVAH
63.73%
Touch ONVAL
58.16%
Touch ONVPOC
70.60%
Initial Balance (IB)
The first-hour range and its subsequent breakout behavior:
Metric
Probability
Break at least one side
97.54%
Break both sides (neutral day)
31.74%
Break only IBH
33.94%
Break only IBL
31.87%
IB holds inside previous IB
6.61%
Break neither side
2.46%
Close After Single IB Break
After breaking only one side of the IB, the probability of the close landing above/below a level:
Case
Probability
Close above IBH (after single break)
68.32%
Close above MID (after single break)
83.21%
Close below IBL (after single break)
68.29%
Close below MID (after single break)
75.20%
Close
Metric
Probability
Close inside previous range
38.47%
Neutral day closes inside IB
37.55%
Close inside previous IB
21.24%
Bearish engulfing
0.65%
Bullish engulfing
0.26%
Volume
Session volume distribution with mode and 1st std-dev range.
Daily session volume (RTH)（n=772）
Mode
65,000
1st std-dev range
45,000 – 105,000
Daily session volume (RTH)
Overnight session volume (ETH)（n=773）
Mode
80,000
1st std-dev range
45,000 – 100,000
Overnight session volume (ETH)
Range
Range distribution for daily / overnight / initial-balance sessions.
Daily session range (RTH)（n=772）
Mode
24 pts
1st std-dev range
7 – 39.5 pts
Daily session range (RTH)
Overnight session range (ETH)（n=773）
Mode
17.5 pts
1st std-dev range
5 – 47 pts
Overnight session range (ETH)
Initial balance range（n=772）
Session
07:20 – 08:20 (CT)
Mode
12 pts
1st std-dev range
3.5 – 19.5 pts
Initial balance range
Using with HermesGEX
Overlay these baselines on live GEX structure: use range modes to scale GEX targets, use touch probabilities to rank prior/overnight levels against walls, use IB / neutral-day odds to pick the play (single break → trend, double break → range).
Risk disclaimer：All data on this page is historical statistics over a fixed sample window and does not constitute trading advice. Futures and options on futures carry substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors; past performance does not indicate future results.
Hermēs Documentation